4LT GS RoadsterHere's a prediction for you. It's a long shot, and I'm going out on a limb...
If things just go a little bit Carl Edwards' way, he could make NASCAR history by winning both the Busch and Nextel Cup championships in the same year. He's certainly got the Busch championship driver's title under wraps, and he's been running well enough. The way his car has been running and the way he communicates with crew chief Bob Osborne, it wouldn't surprise me to see Edwards pull it out.
It would be an upset. It would be a surprise. But remember, he almost won the championship in his first full season so he's had a little taste of it. The way he ran at Watkins Glen and Richmond, and the way that team has been performing with wins at Michigan and Bristol, I'd keep an eye on that young man. I'm a big fan, and he's in the best shape of all of the guys out there. He's a sharp guy, and he's on his game right now. I'll make a long-shot prediction, and I'd love to see Carl win both championships because it's something that's never been done before.
Contenders
In order to do that though, he's going to have to overcome some mighty strong contenders. Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin will do very well in the Chase because they have done well all year long. They have the teams, cars, performance and consistency to win this thing. Gordon is so consistent, and Johnson is so fast.
Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus may be the only team that could have trouble in a race, get way behind and make it up. Stewart may fall in that category as well because they win races. If you get in trouble and have a bad race, the only way you can get back is go out and win races, just like Johnson did last year. Jimmie's car is fast everywhere, and he can win everywhere. Tony's car is fast. Jeff's car is consistent, and then you throw in Kenseth, who is always Mr. Reliable. After going through the Chase in his rookie season last year, Hamlin has a little bit of experience to go with a consistently good car. Add in Edwards, and those drivers have the best shot at winning this championship.
Brothers can beat themselves
If I were a betting man, I'd put a little money on Kurt Busch and his brother Kyle, but they both have the same problem. They've got to control their emotions. Kurt has a fast car. He and crew chief Pat Tryson are a good combination, and they're getting the performance they need at the right time.
Out of the last nine races, the No. 2 car hasn't finished worse than 11th so the team has been really consistent and winning races. If Kurt can control his emotions and not get mad at Tony Stewart or somebody else along the way, he could make it tough for the top six drivers. He had the magic in 2004 to pull off the championship so keep an eye on Kurt.
And Kyle is erratic. He's on one week and off one week. If the No. 5 car has any problems at all, Kyle and the team will be at odds before the Chase is over. He'll blame the team for the car's poor performance or he'll blame the team for something that shouldn't have happened. There could be disarray, and it could be his Achilles heel in the last 10 races. If he can stay tight with his crew and prove to his team that he wants to go out in style, then he has the ability and they have the car that could get it done.
Pretenders
Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer and Martin Truex Jr. are fortunate that the Chase levels the field and gives them a shot at getting back in contention. They just don't have cars capable of winning a bunch of races and a championship. I like Bowyer, but the poor guy has had two top five finishes this whole year, and he doesn't have any wins going into the Chase. As a matter of fact, he doesn't have any wins period, so he's thanking his lucky stars that the Chase format exists because it gives him and his two teammates an outside chance of doing something. Those cars just haven't been consistent enough and performing well enough over the last few weeks to make me think that Burton, Harvick or Bowyer has a really strong shot.
But every one of these guys — Kurt, Kyle, Burton, Harvick, Bowyer and Truex — has a little something that makes me think they don't have what it takes to win a championship in a 10-race format. They just don't have the total package to go out there and win the title over 10 races.
DW's Article
