Misinformation
Wow. Alot of people here do not have a clue reagarding ethanol (thanks Hib for correcting that) the corn supply, and Brazil.
First, as far as is ethanol good/bad for the car that can be debated and I can look at both sides however all the fact must be straight.
Corn supply: 2010 acerage in the US is estimated at just under 90 Mil. Acres. With abandondment (I am not going to explain all that) farmers will produce about 13 Bil Bushels of corn. the 2009 crop was just over 13 Bil Bu so we will use that as a base.
Livestock feed uses between 5.5 Billion bu and 6 Bil. It will be probably closer to the smaller number. (these are off the top of my head btw) anyways, the corn in question, we do eat indirectly through meat consumption (and milk), so if we use corn from ethanol it is not "sweet" corn or the type you find on a cob in summer or in a can. (all the above acres are field corn, or feed corn etc). I am also leaving out the 75 Mil. acres of SB and other crops as well and will just look at corn. (BTW we raise about 3 BBU of soybeans)
Before the ethanol "boom" we used about 1.5 BBU for FSI or Food/seed/industrial uses which included HFCS.
Exports make up anywhere from 1.8 BBU to just over 2 BBU. Exports make the market move because it is a sign of global demand etc.
As far as ethanol, the USDA has 4 BBU plugged into the balance sheet for ethanol useage. Out of that over a 1/3 of the corn is re-used as livestock or even human food called dried distillers grains.
Now we add all the demand and even on the high side that is 12 BBU so we have about 1 BBU left. This year we have about 1.8 BBU left from last year and that is what we call the carry out. The carry out/demand is what we call the stocks to use ratio. If this is narrow it shows we need to rally the price, however what is happening is we are raising more corn to meet the demand. The national average corn yield was 165 BPA Last year and it was a record "per acre" yield. Technology is allowing us to grow more per acre.
So, we are NOT going to run out of food by producing ethanol out of corn.
Brazil: They make ethanol out of sugarcane and thier goal is to provide the WORLD with 10% of its renewable fuel demand. Sugarcane is much more efficent with the gallons of ethaol per acre. I dont have the number in my head, sorry but compared to corn, where we get almost 3 gal per bushel, cane is close to 2x (I think). Brazil is NOT a small country in fact the state of Rio Grande de sol can fit Illinois, Iowa, MN, MO and WI inside. 2 of our biggest corn states can fit inside and it has land capable of growing corn and soybeans in the same year, and that land is not touched yet and this land is NOT rain forest. It is just like IL and IA was when the settlers came accross. By the way ALL of south america produced about 5 Bil Bu of soybeans last year, and that is more than we did in the states. More Cane acres or Corn acres in Brazil will NOT take away soybean acres or rain forest.
Now the debate can rage about ethanol hurting fuel systems and the like and if that is the issue and concerns then fine however we will not run out of food due to use of ethanol and Brazil can produce much more if they wanted and they probably will. as far as the VETC, these are the credits the blenders get for blending ETOH (that is ethanol) and these are 45 cents per/gal. So at a 10% blend per gal. they get 4.5 cents back and in SOME (not all) cases they pass this on in price. The octane is better at around 105 but the BTU's are just over 1/2 so you get less energy but a higher octane. The forced induction guys love it because higher octane=less knock = more boost.
Correct on ETOH being used to replace the octane enhance MTBE which was harmful to the environment but ethanol is no more than moonshine (when it comes out of the still the pland add gasoline so it can not be consumed by humans)
With that said keep in mind. We CAN NOT raise enough corn to produce enough fuel to replace oil, unless the conversion gets ALOT better, and some would like you to belive that we canbut we really can not, however it has its place in the mix.
Debate on please.....
Wow. Alot of people here do not have a clue reagarding ethanol (thanks Hib for correcting that) the corn supply, and Brazil.
First, as far as is ethanol good/bad for the car that can be debated and I can look at both sides however all the fact must be straight.
Corn supply: 2010 acerage in the US is estimated at just under 90 Mil. Acres. With abandondment (I am not going to explain all that) farmers will produce about 13 Bil Bushels of corn. the 2009 crop was just over 13 Bil Bu so we will use that as a base.
Livestock feed uses between 5.5 Billion bu and 6 Bil. It will be probably closer to the smaller number. (these are off the top of my head btw) anyways, the corn in question, we do eat indirectly through meat consumption (and milk), so if we use corn from ethanol it is not "sweet" corn or the type you find on a cob in summer or in a can. (all the above acres are field corn, or feed corn etc). I am also leaving out the 75 Mil. acres of SB and other crops as well and will just look at corn. (BTW we raise about 3 BBU of soybeans)
Before the ethanol "boom" we used about 1.5 BBU for FSI or Food/seed/industrial uses which included HFCS.
Exports make up anywhere from 1.8 BBU to just over 2 BBU. Exports make the market move because it is a sign of global demand etc.
As far as ethanol, the USDA has 4 BBU plugged into the balance sheet for ethanol useage. Out of that over a 1/3 of the corn is re-used as livestock or even human food called dried distillers grains.
Now we add all the demand and even on the high side that is 12 BBU so we have about 1 BBU left. This year we have about 1.8 BBU left from last year and that is what we call the carry out. The carry out/demand is what we call the stocks to use ratio. If this is narrow it shows we need to rally the price, however what is happening is we are raising more corn to meet the demand. The national average corn yield was 165 BPA Last year and it was a record "per acre" yield. Technology is allowing us to grow more per acre.
So, we are NOT going to run out of food by producing ethanol out of corn.
Brazil: They make ethanol out of sugarcane and thier goal is to provide the WORLD with 10% of its renewable fuel demand. Sugarcane is much more efficent with the gallons of ethaol per acre. I dont have the number in my head, sorry but compared to corn, where we get almost 3 gal per bushel, cane is close to 2x (I think). Brazil is NOT a small country in fact the state of Rio Grande de sol can fit Illinois, Iowa, MN, MO and WI inside. 2 of our biggest corn states can fit inside and it has land capable of growing corn and soybeans in the same year, and that land is not touched yet and this land is NOT rain forest. It is just like IL and IA was when the settlers came accross. By the way ALL of south america produced about 5 Bil Bu of soybeans last year, and that is more than we did in the states. More Cane acres or Corn acres in Brazil will NOT take away soybean acres or rain forest.
Now the debate can rage about ethanol hurting fuel systems and the like and if that is the issue and concerns then fine however we will not run out of food due to use of ethanol and Brazil can produce much more if they wanted and they probably will. as far as the VETC, these are the credits the blenders get for blending ETOH (that is ethanol) and these are 45 cents per/gal. So at a 10% blend per gal. they get 4.5 cents back and in SOME (not all) cases they pass this on in price. The octane is better at around 105 but the BTU's are just over 1/2 so you get less energy but a higher octane. The forced induction guys love it because higher octane=less knock = more boost.
Correct on ETOH being used to replace the octane enhance MTBE which was harmful to the environment but ethanol is no more than moonshine (when it comes out of the still the pland add gasoline so it can not be consumed by humans)
With that said keep in mind. We CAN NOT raise enough corn to produce enough fuel to replace oil, unless the conversion gets ALOT better, and some would like you to belive that we canbut we really can not, however it has its place in the mix.
Debate on please.....