Extrapolation formula help needed please

[C4fan]

Hi,
Thanks to some fellow members I have had a few recommendations on how to compute the uniqueness of my '93 Corvette Cv. Unfortunately I have come up with several different answers for production number. Maybe someone can help me using the Corvette Black Book Exprapolation formula to find out how many cars were produced like mine in 1993.

1993 Corvette Cconvertible
Bright Aqua Metallic exterior
White Leather (non sport seat) interior
White Cv top.
Auto Trans


Here is what i know so far:

1993 Tot Prod: 21,590
Tot CV Production: 5,692
Bright Aqua Metallic: 1,305
White Leather Interior Trim (base) 766

I understand the total producted like my car can be anywhere from less than 50 to approx 160. I probably should have paid better attention in math class in HS.

Thanks,
C4fan

 

[toptechx6]

The Math Forum - Ask Dr. Math

 

[C4fan]

Was hoping someone who has used the formula sucessfully before could help.

 

[toptechx6]

Was hoping someone who has used the formula sucessfully before could help.

Since any calculation using an extrapolation formula would be approximate how would someone determine success or failure? :eyerole

 

[XLR8]

Got your PM c4fan and this is the best I can come up with. As toptechx6 pointed out, extrapolation is based on stats and a guess-timate only.

1993 Total production = 21590
Convertibles produced = 5692 divided by Tot. prod. = 0.264 or 26% of total
Bright Aqua Metallic Total = 1305 ... (convt = 26%) so 1305 x 0.26 = 339
Bright Aqua Metallic Convertibles = 339
1993 models with Auto transmission = 16260 div. by Tot. 21590 = 0.753 or 75% of Total production with A/T
Bright Aqua Metallic Convertibles WITH A/T = 339 x 0.75 = 254
1993 4 interior color options available with B.A.M. ...B.A.M. convt. w. A/T div by 4 int. color options
= 254 div. by 4 = 64 each of the int. color options
1993 White Leather Base Seats prod. = 766 div. by Tot. prod. 21590 = 0.036 or 3.6 % of the TOTAL production
Bright Aqua Metallic Convertibles with A/T and White interior = 64 x 0.036 = 2.3

So....
In my opinion that's too low. I base that on the idea that the white interior would have outnumbered the other colors simply because - again IMO - the white interior would look best with the Bright Aqua Metallic. But that's just me.

Regardless... you've got a beautiful C4.
Take some pix of it soon and share them with us.
Enjoy your C4 and the forums.
Jane Ann

 

[Tuna]

Vert % of production = 5692/21590 = 26.36%
% that are Aqua Marine = 1305/21590 = 6.04%
% white leather = 766/21590 = 3.55 %

Verts that are aqua = 5692*6.04% = ~344
With white leather base seats = 344*3.55% = ~12

This all assumes that everything is totally balanced between Verts and Coupes, Aqua .vs. all the other colors .vs. verts and coupes and that the same percentage of folks ordered a coupe or a vert with the base white leather.

Which means this is totally a Wild A$$ Guess. Without a serious accounting of all the build sheets for the '93 MY (which I do not believe exists), this is all it's going to be. :ugh

"There are lies, damn lies and then there's statistics!" Somebody famous said that.

 

[C4fan]

Got your PM c4fan and this is the best I can come up with. As toptechx6 pointed out, extrapolation is based on stats and a guess-timate only.

1993 Total production = 21590
Convertibles produced = 5692 divided by Tot. prod. = 0.264 or 26% of total
Bright Aqua Metallic Total = 1305 ... (convt = 26%) so 1305 x 0.26 = 339
Bright Aqua Metallic Convertibles = 339
1993 models with Auto transmission = 16260 div. by Tot. 21590 = 0.753 or 75% of Total production with A/T
Bright Aqua Metallic Convertibles WITH A/T = 339 x 0.75 = 254
1993 4 interior color options available with B.A.M. ...B.A.M. convt. w. A/T div by 4 int. color options
= 254 div. by 4 = 64 each of the int. color options
1993 White Leather Base Seats prod. = 766 div. by Tot. prod. 21590 = 0.036 or 3.6 % of the TOTAL production
Bright Aqua Metallic Convertibles with A/T and White interior = 64 x 0.036 = 2.3

So....
In my opinion that's too low. I base that on the idea that the white interior would have outnumbered the other colors simply because - again IMO - the white interior would look best with the Bright Aqua Metallic. But that's just me.

Regardless... you've got a beautiful C4.
Take some pix of it soon and share them with us.
Enjoy your C4 and the forums.
Jane Ann

Thank you soooo much Jane Ann. I agree, the number seems too low. If you just figure 3.6% (21,590 divided by 766 base white leather Int) of the 339 Bright Aqua convertibles producted and assume an average, it comes out to 12. Which is what the following member came up with. One of 12 produced sounds like a fair assumption to me. What do you think??????

phil

 

[C4fan]

Vert % of production = 5692/21590 = 26.36%
% that are Aqua Marine = 1305/21590 = 6.04%
% white leather = 766/21590 = 3.55 %

Verts that are aqua = 5692*6.04% = ~344
With white leather base seats = 344*3.55% = ~12

This all assumes that everything is totally balanced between Verts and Coupes, Aqua .vs. all the other colors .vs. verts and coupes and that the same percentage of folks ordered a coupe or a vert with the base white leather.

Which means this a totally a Wild A$$ Guess. Without a serious accounting of all the build sheets for the '93 MY (which I do not believe exists), this is all it's going to be. :ugh

"There are lies, damn lies and then there's statistics!" Somebody famous said that.

Thank you!!!! I come up with approx 12 produced also. And as you said, assuming some things here.

phil

 

[C4fan]

Vert % of production = 5692/21590 = 26.36%
% that are Aqua Marine = 1305/21590 = 6.04%
% white leather = 766/21590 = 3.55 %

Verts that are aqua = 5692*6.04% = ~344
With white leather base seats = 344*3.55% = ~12

This all assumes that everything is totally balanced between Verts and Coupes, Aqua .vs. all the other colors .vs. verts and coupes and that the same percentage of folks ordered a coupe or a vert with the base white leather.

Which means this a totally a Wild A$$ Guess. Without a serious accounting of all the build sheets for the '93 MY (which I do not believe exists), this is all it's going to be. :ugh

"There are lies, damn lies and then there's statistics!" Somebody famous said that.

/QUOTE]
Thank you !!!! I came up with approx 12 also. I think between both responses I feel comfortable saying there were approx 12-20 produced like my car.

Thanks again!
C4fan

 

[Z07]

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